All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Valley Kickoff |
Brown County Harrier Invitational |
Dennis Bays Invitational |
Harrison Invitational |
Eagle Classic |
Conference Indiana |
Nike XC Town Twilight |
Bedford North Lawrence Sectional |
Mater Dei Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/13 |
8/19 |
8/26 |
9/2 |
9/9 |
9/16 |
9/30 |
10/14 |
10/21 |
10/28 |
| Team Rating |
352 | |
323 |
689 |
386 |
333 |
530 |
367 |
383 |
359 |
331 |
343 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
323 |
308 |
386 |
333 |
401 |
367 |
383 |
359 |
331 |
343 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Valley Kickoff |
Brown County Harrier Invitational |
Dennis Bays Invitational |
Harrison Invitational |
Eagle Classic |
Conference Indiana |
Nike XC Town Twilight |
Bedford North Lawrence Sectional |
Mater Dei Regional |
State Finals |
|---|
| 16 |
Ryan Rheam |
12 |
15:52 |
15:30 |
15:32 |
|
16:16 |
15:46 |
|
16:05 |
16:18 |
15:52 |
15:47 |
15:46 |
| 44 |
Joe Zinkan |
12 |
16:12 |
16:05 |
17:00 |
|
16:35 |
16:21 |
16:57 |
16:35 |
16:20 |
16:10 |
16:03 |
16:12 |
| 119 |
Hunter Tabor |
12 |
16:40 |
16:38 |
16:10 |
|
16:28 |
16:32 |
16:28 |
16:34 |
16:49 |
16:41 |
16:47 |
16:53 |
| 355 |
Suoming Zhang |
12 |
17:21 |
17:12 |
17:28 |
|
17:23 |
17:28 |
17:33 |
17:26 |
17:26 |
17:16 |
17:13 |
17:13 |
| 568 |
Luke Reinhart |
9 |
17:48 |
|
18:12 |
|
17:48 |
18:09 |
17:49 |
17:34 |
17:36 |
17:58 |
17:42 |
17:42 |
| 615 |
Roman Ross |
11 |
17:53 |
17:28 |
17:11 |
17:15 |
18:25 |
17:27 |
18:19 |
17:47 |
18:12 |
|
|
|
| 721 |
Sam Lutz |
10 |
18:01 |
17:34 |
17:49 |
17:54 |
18:54 |
18:13 |
17:48 |
17:59 |
17:36 |
18:00 |
18:09 |
18:03 |
| 748 |
Marshall Caldwell |
11 |
18:03 |
17:18 |
17:41 |
17:47 |
|
18:00 |
17:53 |
17:53 |
18:06 |
18:15 |
18:13 |
18:06 |
| 792 |
Matthew Zinkan |
9 |
18:08 |
|
18:12 |
18:11 |
17:50 |
18:13 |
18:03 |
18:18 |
17:59 |
|
|
|
| 802 |
Matt Stein |
11 |
18:08 |
18:07 |
18:04 |
17:53 |
17:56 |
18:01 |
18:02 |
18:08 |
18:55 |
|
|
|
| 848 |
Garrett Pitkin |
9 |
18:13 |
|
18:23 |
17:54 |
18:11 |
18:07 |
18:12 |
18:18 |
18:13 |
|
|
|
| 882 |
Abe Brown |
10 |
18:16 |
|
18:38 |
18:29 |
18:34 |
18:13 |
18:00 |
18:22 |
17:50 |
|
|
|
| 905 |
James Rice |
9 |
18:18 |
|
|
|
|
18:23 |
18:08 |
18:33 |
18:08 |
|
|
|
| 963 |
Weston Matthews |
9 |
18:23 |
|
18:17 |
18:19 |
17:56 |
18:18 |
18:13 |
18:30 |
18:52 |
|
|
|
| 1,003 |
Vasidy Bender |
11 |
18:26 |
18:44 |
19:00 |
18:07 |
18:25 |
18:59 |
18:21 |
18:10 |
18:23 |
|
|
|
| 1,018 |
Isaiah Dilger |
9 |
18:27 |
|
19:32 |
18:58 |
19:04 |
18:22 |
18:18 |
18:22 |
18:15 |
|
|
|
| 1,026 |
David Jackson |
11 |
18:28 |
18:08 |
18:14 |
17:52 |
18:52 |
18:06 |
18:02 |
18:59 |
18:53 |
|
|
|
| 1,128 |
Bryson Marlett |
12 |
18:36 |
|
18:48 |
18:42 |
18:36 |
18:35 |
18:43 |
18:13 |
18:38 |
|
|
|
| 1,317 |
Jack Taylor |
9 |
18:52 |
|
18:54 |
18:30 |
18:44 |
18:44 |
18:43 |
19:08 |
19:06 |
|
|
|
| 1,408 |
Ryan Gales |
12 |
18:59 |
18:44 |
19:19 |
|
19:43 |
19:02 |
18:40 |
18:43 |
|
|
|
|
|
Kaden Lang |
9 |
19:13 |
|
19:33 |
19:49 |
19:08 |
18:54 |
19:14 |
|
19:02 |
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| State Finals |
100% |
18.0 |
412 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
3.5 |
5.7 |
6.1 |
9.1 |
11.0 |
13.0 |
12.2 |
11.2 |
10.9 |
8.8 |
3.4 |
0.8 |
|
| Regionals |
100% |
4.9 |
176 |
|
0.3 |
1.8 |
14.7 |
77.3 |
4.8 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
2.0 |
49 |
0.6 |
99.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Ryan Rheam |
100% |
17.4 |
|
0.1 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
2.2 |
3.2 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.6 |
4.4 |
3.6 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
4.0 |
3.6 |
2.7 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
2.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Joe Zinkan |
100% |
45.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
0.6 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
|
99.8% |
| Hunter Tabor |
100% |
124.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
65.1% |
| Suoming Zhang |
100% |
215.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1% |
| Luke Reinhart |
100% |
237.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
| Sam Lutz |
100% |
241.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
| Marshall Caldwell |
100% |
242.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Ryan Rheam |
100% |
4.7 |
0.8 |
13.6 |
13.8 |
13.6 |
12.5 |
10.4 |
8.7 |
7.0 |
4.7 |
4.8 |
3.2 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
1.4 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Joe Zinkan |
100% |
12.7 |
|
0.1 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
3.3 |
4.1 |
4.7 |
6.0 |
7.2 |
8.2 |
7.4 |
8.4 |
7.7 |
6.7 |
6.5 |
5.3 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
3.4 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Hunter Tabor |
100% |
28.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
1.6 |
3.4 |
3.1 |
3.4 |
4.3 |
4.6 |
5.0 |
4.4 |
|
100.0% |
| Suoming Zhang |
100% |
59.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Luke Reinhart |
100% |
90.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sam Lutz |
100% |
109.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Marshall Caldwell |
100% |
112.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Ryan Rheam |
1.0 |
68.1 |
12.5 |
8.9 |
8.7 |
1.4 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Joe Zinkan |
4.1 |
0.8 |
18.9 |
12.6 |
14.5 |
26.0 |
17.3 |
5.7 |
3.2 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Hunter Tabor |
8.9 |
|
|
0.2 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
5.8 |
13.7 |
13.5 |
17.1 |
14.3 |
18.9 |
10.7 |
3.4 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Suoming Zhang |
14.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.5 |
2.7 |
8.5 |
16.8 |
27.0 |
38.9 |
4.3 |
1.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Luke Reinhart |
17.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.5 |
3.6 |
33.4 |
21.4 |
17.5 |
10.4 |
6.9 |
3.5 |
2.0 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
| Sam Lutz |
20.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.2 |
2.6 |
8.3 |
12.7 |
14.7 |
15.9 |
17.3 |
13.7 |
8.1 |
4.7 |
| Marshall Caldwell |
21.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
1.5 |
5.4 |
9.7 |
13.4 |
16.9 |
16.2 |
14.4 |
12.4 |
6.5 |
|
